Viewing archive of Friday, 19 September 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity was low. There were two C-class flares during the past 24 hours. The first was a C2 at 18/2151 UTC which appears to have originated from a region behind the east limb near S06. The second was a C1 at 1820 UTC which was associated with activity in Region 461 (N17E21). Region 461 continues to be the largest region on the disk. Region 459 (S11W27) is showing slow, steady growth and possesses a predominantly East-West inversion line.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from active to minor storm levels during the past 24 hours. This activity was due to the continued influence of a high speed solar wind stream associated with a favorably positioned coronal hole. Solar wind velocity has shown a slow decline over the past 24 hours, with initial values around 800 km/s having decreased to day-end values around 675 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active with some isolated minor storm periods for the next two days as the current disturbance persists. A decline to unsettled to slightly active is expected by the third day.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Sep to 22 Sep
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Sep 111
  Predicted   20 Sep-22 Sep  110/115/115
  90 Day Mean        19 Sep 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep  029/040
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Sep  025/035
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep  020/025-020/025-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep to 22 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%25%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%35%
Minor storm30%30%25%
Major-severe storm20%20%10%

All times in UTC

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