Viewing archive of Tuesday, 14 October 2003
Solar activity report
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
III. Event Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Oct 092 Predicted 15 Oct-17 Oct 100/100/105 90 Day Mean 14 Oct 115
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct 012/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct 025/040 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 025/040-025/030-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 45% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Norilsk, VorkutaCurrent data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future
SurgutLatest news
X1.1 solar flare
Coronal hole faces Earth
Strong G3 geomagnetic storm watch for 23 March
Latest forum messages
Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Latest alerts
10:00 UTC - Hemispheric Power Index
The OVATION model predicts the Hemispheric Power Index to reach 78GW at 10:32 UTC
04:15 UTC - Geomagnetic activity
Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) Threshold Reached: 04:05 UTC
03:15 UTC - Geomagnetic activity
Moderate G2 geomagnetic storm (Kp6) Threshold Reached: 02:59 UTC
01:00 UTC - Geomagnetic activity
Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) Threshold Reached: 00:51 UTC
Friday, 4 April 2025
23:30 UTC - Geomagnetic activity
Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) Threshold Reached: 23:17 UTC
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/04/01 | M2.5 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/04/04 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| March 2025 | 134.2 -20.4 |
| April 2025 | 148 +13.8 |
| Last 30 days | 130.9 -15.2 |