Viewing archive of Thursday, 23 October 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Oct 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
Solar activity was at high levels again today. Region
486 (S16E70) produced a major flare at 23/0835 UTC; it was an X5/1b
event, with an associated Tenflare and a Type II radio sweep that
had an estimated shock velocity of 967 km/s. An associated CME was
also seen on SOHO/LASCO imagery. A second major flare from this
region occurred at 23/2004 UTC, which was an impulsive X1/1n flare.
This region is just rotating into view on the southeast limb, and is
obviously a very large group, with a complex beta-gamma-delta
magnetic configuration. Region 484 (N04W00) was fairly active
producing several M-class flares today. The largest was an M3/1n
event that occurred at 23/0708 UTC. This region continues to depict
a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure. No new regions were
numbered today. The F10 value is estimated and is based on the
Penticton morning reading due to a flare enhancement during the
reading of the noon value.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
high levels. Regions 484 and 486 are both very capable of producing
major flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit were at high
levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from active to major storm levels for the forecast
period. These elevated conditions are expected as a result of the
partial halo CME on 22/0754 UTC and from the X5/1b flare at 23/0835
UTC.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Oct to 26 Oct
Class M | 90% | 90% | 90% |
Class X | 50% | 50% | 50% |
Proton | 25% | 30% | 35% |
PCAF | yellow
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Oct 183
Predicted 24 Oct-26 Oct 190/195/195
90 Day Mean 23 Oct 114
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct 020/033
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct 040/050-040/050-030/050
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct to 26 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 30% | 30% | 40% |
Minor storm | 40% | 40% | 30% |
Major-severe storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
Minor storm | 40% | 40% | 40% |
Major-severe storm | 40% | 40% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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