Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Friday, 24 October 2003

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Oct 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been high. Region 486 (S16E57) produced several flares, including a M7.6/1n at 24/0254 UTC, with an associated Type IV radio sweep. An associated CME was observed on SOHO/LASCO imagery with an estimated velocity of 900 km/s, although the CME did not appear to be earth-directed. Region 484 (N05W15) produced an M1.3 at 24/1856 UTC. Region 484 appears to be decaying slightly, while Region 486 is growing. Both regions continue to exhibit large, complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configurations. The F10 value is flare enhanced and is estimated due to solar activity at the time of the measurement.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be high. Regions 484 and 486 are expected to produce major flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to severe storm levels. An interplanetary shock was observed at ACE at 24/1450 UTC, with a subsequent sudden impulse observed at 1530 UTC. The sudden impulse was followed by about two hours of severe geomagnetic storm activity, and produced a magnetopause crossing at GOES 12. Solar wind data show high density flow with strong magnetic fields (about 30 nT), although so far Bz has been strongly northwards. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to severe storm conditions for day one, due to persistence from the current transient-driven activity. Activity should subside to unsettled to minor storm levels on days two and three.

III. Event Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct

Class M	90%	90%	90%
Class X	45%	45%	45%
Proton	15%	20%	25%
PCAF	yellow

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       24 Oct 191
  Predicted   25 Oct-27 Oct  190/195/200
  90 Day Mean        24 Oct 117

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct  005/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Oct  035/040
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct  035/040-030/040-020/030

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	30%	40%	40%
Minor storm	40%	30%	30%
Major-severe storm	30%	20%	15%

B. High Latitudes
Active	20%	20%	20%
Minor storm	40%	40%	40%
Major-severe storm	40%	40%	30%

All times in UTC

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The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (16.05nT), the direction is North (8.54nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-61nT)

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