Viewing archive of Thursday, 6 November 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Nov 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. After nearly
three weeks of intense solar activity, the visible surface of the
sun is almost spotless. Region 495 (S21W76) is the only spot group
visible and has exhibited little change from yesterday. A long
duration B5 X-ray enhancement was observed at 06/1831Z and EIT
imagery suggests a source from beyond the west limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to range
from very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. The shock
from the X28 flare on 04 November reached Earth at 06/1937Z. A 31nT
sudden impulse was observed on the Boulder magnetometer and activity
reached minor storm levels. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field, as measured by the NASA/ACE spacecraft initially
turned south to -7 nT and total field measurement reached 15 nT. A
greater than 10 MeV proton event continues with current flux levels
at 18 pfu and slowly decreasing.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels with isolated minor storm
levels possible. Active levels with isolated minor storm levels are
expected on day one. By day two and three activity is expected to
return to quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton
event is expected to end early on day one.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Nov to 09 Nov
| Class M | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 50% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Nov 098 Predicted 07 Nov-09 Nov 095/090/090 90 Day Mean 06 Nov 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov 004/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov 020/020-010/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov to 09 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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