Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Friday, 7 November 2003

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Nov 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. A long duration X-ray enhancement was observed at 0318Z reaching the B8 level. Two CME's were observed in LASCO imagery and determined to be back sided. The visible disk is almost spotless with Region 495 (S18W89) the only spot group observed.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Continued low level X-ray enhancements are possible due to back side activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 02/1105Z and reached a peak value of 1570 pfu on 03/0815Z, ended today at 07/1230Z. A small enhancement of greater than 10 MeV proton flux was observed at around 07/1730Z but is currently below threshold. The source of this enhancement is likely activity from the backside.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels with isolated minor storms levels possible. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 08-09 November. A returning coronal hole is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position on 10 November with active to isolated minor storm levels possible.

III. Event Probabilities 08 Nov to 10 Nov

Class M	01%	01%	01%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	10%	10%	10%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       07 Nov 091
  Predicted   08 Nov-10 Nov  090/090/095
  90 Day Mean        07 Nov 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov  011/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Nov  006/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov  008/015-010/015-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov to 10 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	20%	20%	25%
Minor storm	10%	10%	15%
Major-severe storm	05%	05%	10%

B. High Latitudes
Active	25%	25%	30%
Minor storm	15%	15%	20%
Major-severe storm	10%	10%	15%

All times in UTC

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