Viewing archive of Wednesday, 10 December 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity continued very low. Only B-class events
occurred. Two new regions rotated onto the disk. Region 520 (N03E75)
is the apparent return of old Region 501, the producer of 11 M-class
flares last rotation. New Region 521 (S11E82) is a mature group with
penumbra on both the leader and follower spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels during
the past 24 hours. The ongoing high-speed solar wind stream reached
850 km/s (currently near 800 km/s) and remains strong and steady.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at GOES was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next 72
hours. This is a continuing response to the high speed solar wind
stream.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Dec to 13 Dec
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Dec 089 Predicted 11 Dec-13 Dec 090/090/095 90 Day Mean 10 Dec 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec 017/031 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Dec 030/040 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec 025/035-025/035-020/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec to 13 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 45% | 45% | 50% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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