Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Thursday, 13 November 2003

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Nov 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours due to two M-class flares, both from newly assigned Region 501 (N05E65), which is the return of old Region 484. The first was an impulsive M1.6 at 0501 UTC. The second was a long duration M1.4 with maximum at 0929 UTC. The M1.4 was associated with a fast CME (about 1100 km/s) that appeared to erupt off east limb. Limited observations hindered analysis of the region, but it appears to have sunspot area of at least 340 millionths.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be moderate for the next three days, with Region 501 the most likely source for activity. There is a slight chance for major flare activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels, with a period of major storm levels at high latitudes. Solar wind signatures continue to show high speed, low density, high temperature, with fairly regular oscillations of the z-component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz), all of which strongly suggest the enhanced geomagnetic activity is being driven by a high-speed coronal hole solar wind stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high levels during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active with occasional minor storm periods for 14-15 November as the current disturbance persists. There should be a slight decline to mostly active on 16 November.

III. Event Probabilities 14 Nov to 16 Nov

Class M	60%	60%	60%
Class X	10%	10%	10%
Proton	05%	05%	05%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       13 Nov 102
  Predicted   14 Nov-16 Nov  105/110/115
  90 Day Mean        13 Nov 128

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov  020/026
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Nov  025/040
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov  025/030-025/030-020/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov to 16 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	40%	40%	40%
Minor storm	30%	30%	25%
Major-severe storm	10%	10%	10%

B. High Latitudes
Active	30%	30%	30%
Minor storm	30%	30%	25%
Major-severe storm	25%	25%	20%

All times in UTC

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The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (15.85nT), the direction is North (12.24nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-55nT)

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