Viewing archive of Friday, 17 October 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Oct 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Today's largest flares were a B9 at 0701 UTC from newly numbered Region 482 (N16E62), and a long-duration B8 at 0932 UTC from behind east limb at about N03. Newly numbered Region 481 (S08W17) emerged on the disk today. Solar imagery suggests that there are additional active regions close to east limb which will be rotating into view soon.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There is a fair chance for an isolated C-class flare sometime during the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The earth continues to be under the influence of a high-speed solar wind stream. The stream continues to decline slowly as the initial speeds around 560 km/s decreased down to about 520 km/s by the end of the period. The interplanetary magnetic field showed regular oscillations and had a weakly negative Bz component on average during the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours. Unsettled levels are expected to prevail for the second and third days.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Oct to 20 Oct
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Oct 099
  Predicted   18 Oct-20 Oct  105/110/110
  90 Day Mean        17 Oct 116
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct  016/026
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Oct  020/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct  015/020-010/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct to 20 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%30%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm30%25%25%
Major-severe storm25%15%15%

All times in UTC

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

100%
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2024/10/31X2.0
Last M-flare2024/10/31M4.6
Last geomagnetic storm2024/10/12Kp5 (G1)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
September 2024141.4 -74.1
October 2024158.5 +17.1
Last 30 days158.5 +10.1

This day in history*

Solar flares
12024X2.0
22002X1.79
32001M4.68
42024M4.6
52004M3.35
DstG
12003-307G4
21968-224G4
31991-104G3
41978-86
52001-81
*since 1994

Social networks