Viewing archive of Tuesday, 6 January 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jan 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 006 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Newly assigned Region 537 (N04E76) produced an M5 x-ray event at 0629 UTC. A CME was associated with this event, but it appears to be centered over this east limb region and has very little, if any, earthward directed component. Region 537 produced additional small flares during the past 24 hours. Region 536 (S10E12) continues to dominate the disk in size and magnetic complexity (beta-gamma-delta), but was remarkably quiet and stable and has been mostly unchanged during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly moderate for 7-9 January, with Region 536 and Region 537 being the main sources for energetic events. There is a slight chance for another, isolated major flare event from either of these regions.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels during the past 24 hours. A high-speed solar wind stream continues to be observed at the ACE spacecraft. Active conditions predominated from the beginning of the day through about 0900 UTC, after which Bz turned weakly northwards and the geomagnetic field declined to quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be active with periods of minor storm conditions for 7 and 8 January. In addition to persistent effects from the high speed wind stream, an enhancement to activity levels is possible beginning late on the 7th or early on the 8th in response to the CME associated with the M6 flare of 5 January. Conditions should subside to mostly active late on 8 January and remain mostly active on 9 January.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jan to 09 Jan
Class M70%70%70%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Jan 117
  Predicted   07 Jan-09 Jan  120/120/125
  90 Day Mean        06 Jan 137
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan  015/022
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Jan  015/022
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan  025/030-025/030-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan to 09 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%35%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm15%15%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%30%
Minor storm35%35%30%
Major-severe storm30%30%20%

All times in UTC

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