Viewing archive of Wednesday, 7 January 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jan 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 007 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity was high. An M4 x-ray event occurred at 0404 UTC and an M8 x-ray event occurred at 1027 UTC. Both events were from Region 537 (N07E64) and were associated with type II sweeps and CMEs off the east limb. The region rotated more fully into view today as a small (280 millionths) but bright and magnetically complex sunspot group. Region 536 (S11W02) continues to be the largest group on the disk and is maintaining its beta-gamma-delta configuration. There was some indication today that the region may be slowly decaying. Region 536 could only manage to produce a couple B-class events. Two new, small, simple regions emerged on the disk today: Region 538 (N07E04) and Region 539 (N09E29).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for isolated major flare activity. Region 537 is expected to remain active and Region 536 still has the potential for producing significant flare activity as well.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels during the past 24 hours. An enhancement in the solar wind flow was observed at ACE, beginning 2000 UTC on 06 January. The enhancement consisted of an increase in total field and in solar wind velocity, and included some extended negative Bz intervals in the -1 to -10 nT range. Although the flow was somewhat atypical (low density, high temperature), the signatures appear to be consistent with a CME led by a compression wave and expanding in low density solar wind that originated in association with the M6 x-ray event on 5 January. The slow rotation of Bz from negative to positive during the last 18 hours resulted in a decrease in geomagnetic activity during the last 5-6 hours of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were high during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active with some minor storm periods for 08 January based on the continued influence of a high speed solar wind stream. Mostly active conditions should predominate on 09 January and a decline to mostly unsettled levels is expected on 10 January.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Jan to 10 Jan
Class M65%65%65%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Jan 119
  Predicted   08 Jan-10 Jan  120/125/125
  90 Day Mean        07 Jan 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan  017/020
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Jan  030/030
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan  025/030-020/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan to 10 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%25%
Minor storm25%20%15%
Major-severe storm15%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%25%25%
Minor storm50%35%25%
Major-severe storm25%20%15%

All times in UTC

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