Viewing archive of Thursday, 8 January 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jan 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 008 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate due to an M1/1n flare at 0507 UTC from Region 537 (N04E50). The group produced additional small flares throughout the day. Analysis of the region indicates a small, relatively compact group of spots with an inversion line running northeast to southwest and cutting through penumbra, making this a delta class group. Region 536 (S10W16) continues to be the largest group and also has a delta configuration. The region produced a few small flares during the past 24 hours and is slowly decaying. A CME was reported by LASCO over the south solar pole, beginning at 1654 UTC on the 7th, and associated with subsequent relatively faint, large scale post-eruption loop system (visible in EIT 195) just to the west and south of Region 536.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate for 09-11 January with Regions 536 and 537 being the most likely source for activity. There continues to be a slight chance for a major flare or proton producing flare from either of these regions during the 09-11 January forecast period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. ACE solar wind showed a steady decline of solar wind velocity and Bz was mostly weak during the past 24 hours. The solar wind appears to be transitioning to nominal conditions, probably indicating the end of the recent high speed stream at ACE. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were high during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be generally unsettled for 09-11 January with a slight chance for isolated active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jan to 11 Jan
Class M70%70%70%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Jan 120
  Predicted   09 Jan-11 Jan  120/120/125
  90 Day Mean        08 Jan 137
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan  016/032
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Jan  010/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan to 11 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%40%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

All times in UTC

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