Viewing archive of Friday, 9 January 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jan 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 009 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate during the last 24 hours. Region 537 (N05E37) produced back-to-back M-class flares, an M1 at 0122 UTC followed immediately by an M3 at 0144 UTC. The x-ray events were associated with a narrow CME erupting off the southeast solar limb. Region 537 continues to have a delta configuration and is growing slowly, The spots appeared to be rotating slightly in a counter-clockwise direction. Region 536 (S12W28) is still the largest group on the disk and is undergoing a net loss of total spot area. However, there is some opposite polarity flux emerging just to the east of the region, and the spot group did produce occasional small flares throughout the day.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly moderate. There continues to be a slight chance for major flare activity from Region 536 and from Region 537.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels during the past 24 hours. An initially unsettled geomagnetic field became more disturbed after 0600 UTC, with one minor storm period from 0600-0900 UTC, followed by unsettled to active conditions for the rest of the day. The increase was likely due to an observed change in the character of the solar wind around 0500 UTC. ACE solar wind data showed a slow rise in velocity, temperature, and density, as well as an increase in the total magnetic field intensity for about 4.5 hours accompanied by moderately southward Bz. The spiral angle also went through a reversal from away to towards just after 0600 Z and back from towards to away around 1000Z. This may be indicative of passage through an interplanetary current sheet. After 1000Z, velocity and speed continued to rise along with temperature, possibly suggestive of the onset of a co-rotating interaction region. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with occasional active periods over the next three days. The main driver for this enhanced activity is expected to be the continued presence of high speed solar wind originating from a solar coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jan to 12 Jan
Class M75%75%75%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Jan 118
  Predicted   10 Jan-12 Jan  120/125/125
  90 Day Mean        09 Jan 137
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan  004/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Jan  020/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan  015/015-015/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan to 12 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm35%35%35%
Major-severe storm15%15%15%

All times in UTC

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

100%
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2024/11/06X2.39
Last M-flare2024/11/22M1.0
Last geomagnetic storm2024/11/10Kp5+ (G1)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
October 2024166.4 +25
November 2024144.1 -22.3
Last 30 days158 +10.7

This day in history*

Solar flares
11998X3.24
21998M4.53
32013M1.69
42000M1.56
52013M1.54
DstG
11997-108G3
21982-101G2
31959-95G2
41991-84G1
51981-81
*since 1994

Social networks