Viewing archive of Saturday, 10 January 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jan 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 010 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
Solar activity decreased to low levels today. Region
536 (S12W41) has continued to show a slow, gradual decay in spot
coverage. Multiple B and C-class flares were produced from this
region during the period, the largest was a C7.7/Sf flare that
occurred at 10/0513Z. Region 537 (N05E24) was limited to B-class
flare production today and did show some decay in penumbral
coverage, although the delta magnetic structure remains well intact.
Near continuous surging along side the inversion line near the
delta configuration was observed throughout much of the day.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. There is a fair chance of an isolated major flare
from either of the two remaining spotted active regions visible on
the solar disk; Regions 536 and 537.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels.
Elevated conditions were most likely the response to a geoeffective
coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels.
Isolated minor storm conditions are possible due to the continued
effects a favorably positioned coronal hole and the associated high
speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jan 119 Predicted 11 Jan-13 Jan 120/125/125 90 Day Mean 10 Jan 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan 016/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan 015/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan 015/020-015/025-015/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 35% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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