Viewing archive of Monday, 5 January 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jan 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 005 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. The GOES x-ray imager observed a long duration M6 flare from Region 536 (S11E25) at 05/0345 UTC with an associated Type IV radio sweep. Again this region has exceeded 900 millionths of white light area coverage and has developed a magnetic beta-gamma configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 536 remains capable of producing an M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active levels with periods of minor storm conditions for 06-08 January. This is due to the continued influence of a coronal hole high speed stream. Additionally, isolated periods of major storm conditions are possible on 07-08 January as a result of the M6 event at 05/0345 UTC.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jan to 08 Jan
Class M60%60%60%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Jan 123
  Predicted   06 Jan-08 Jan  125/120/120
  90 Day Mean        05 Jan 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan  013/024
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Jan  020/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan  020/025-025/030-025/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan to 08 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%40%40%
Minor storm15%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%45%45%
Minor storm20%25%25%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

All times in UTC

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