Viewing archive of Sunday, 1 February 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Feb 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 032 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 549 (N14E57) continued
to produce B and small C-class flares. The region is now fully in
view as a magnetically simple E-type sunspot group. Other regions
were relatively quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Small flares are expected to continue in Region 549.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled becoming unsettled to active by 03
February.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Feb to 04 Feb
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Feb 097 Predicted 02 Feb-04 Feb 100/105/105 90 Day Mean 01 Feb 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan 011/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb 010/020-015/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb to 04 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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