Viewing archive of Saturday, 28 February 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Feb 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 059 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
Solar activity has been low. There were several B- and
C-class X-ray events during the period. Region 564 (N15W54) has had
no significant changes from yesterday and continues to have a good
potential to produce a major flare. There are an additional four
regions each classified as Beta magnetic configuration, that have a
fair potential to produce a major flare. Region 568 (S16W20) was
newly numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low with a chance for isolated moderate. There remains a
good potential for Region 564 to produce a major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been mostly quiet to active with an
isolated period of minor storming at 0900 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with a fair chance for
periods of minor storming through 2 March, due to the influence of a
high-speed solar wind stream.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Feb to 02 Mar
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 45% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Feb 116 Predicted 29 Feb-02 Mar 120/115/110 90 Day Mean 28 Feb 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb 008/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb 020/021 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Feb-02 Mar 020/020-020/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Feb to 02 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Edmonton, AB, Gillam, MB, Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NTAnchorage, AK, Fairbanks, AK, Juneau, AK
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