Viewing archive of Saturday, 27 March 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 087 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Mar 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity was low. Newly assigned Region 586
(S18W80) produced four, low-level C-class flares during the past 24
hours. Region 582 (N14E45) continues to be the largest group on the
disk but was quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event, with Region
582 being the most likely source.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active. Solar wind data
show the continuation and intensification of the high speed stream.
The velocity increased from around 600 km/s up to about 900 km/s
between 1500Z and 2100Z. At the same time density decreased,
temperature increased, and Alfven wave activity in the magnetic
field components appeared to increase.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field should be
mostly unsettled to active for the next three days (27-29 March) as
the high speed stream is likely to persist.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Mar to 30 Mar
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Mar 128 Predicted 28 Mar-30 Mar 125/120/115 90 Day Mean 27 Mar 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Mar 010/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Mar 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar 015/020-015/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Mar to 30 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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