Viewing archive of Tuesday, 20 April 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Apr 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 111 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Apr 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
Solar activity has been very low. Region 596 (S09E31)
remains the largest region on the visible solar disk at 340
millionths of white light coverage. A new region was numbered today
as Region 597 (S06W60).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 596 has the potential for continued C-class
activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated
periods of active conditions are possible on 23 April due to a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Apr to 23 Apr
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Apr 111 Predicted 21 Apr-23 Apr 115/120/120 90 Day Mean 20 Apr 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Apr 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Apr 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Apr-23 Apr 005/010-010/010-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Apr to 23 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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