Viewing archive of Wednesday, 5 January 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jan 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 005 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Though very low, two events of note occurred. The first was a prolonged B8 flare at 05/0522Z from Region 715 (N04W33). This event had an associated faint full halo CME. The second event was a large 30 degree filament eruption from near N01E14. This solar event also resulted in a full halo CME with an impressive post-CME arcade on SXI and EIT imagery. Most of the ejecta associated with this CME did not appear to be Earth-directed. A third faint halo CME was also observed on LASCO imagery on 04/1254Z. This CME was likely associated with the C7 flare in Region 715 on 04/1113Z. Region 715, a small beta group in decay, contains the only sunspots on the visible disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low. There is a slight chance for a C-class flare from Region 715.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels. Solar wind speed began the period near 750 km/s, but gradually declined to near 600 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. The current high speed solar wind stream is expected to gradually decline through 06 January. Three different CMEs over the past two days may cause occasional storm periods.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jan to 08 Jan
Class M10%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Jan 088
  Predicted   06 Jan-08 Jan  085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        05 Jan 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan  016/023
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Jan  020/022
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan  015/020-015/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan to 08 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%20%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%30%30%
Minor storm25%15%15%
Major-severe storm15%05%05%

All times in UTC

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