Viewing archive of Wednesday, 5 January 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jan 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 005 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
Solar activity was very low. Though very low, two
events of note occurred. The first was a prolonged B8 flare at
05/0522Z from Region 715 (N04W33). This event had an associated
faint full halo CME. The second event was a large 30 degree filament
eruption from near N01E14. This solar event also resulted in a full
halo CME with an impressive post-CME arcade on SXI and EIT imagery.
Most of the ejecta associated with this CME did not appear to be
Earth-directed. A third faint halo CME was also observed on LASCO
imagery on 04/1254Z. This CME was likely associated with the C7
flare in Region 715 on 04/1113Z. Region 715, a small beta group in
decay, contains the only sunspots on the visible disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is a slight chance for a C-class flare from Region 715.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels.
Solar wind speed began the period near 750 km/s, but gradually
declined to near 600 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. The current high
speed solar wind stream is expected to gradually decline through 06
January. Three different CMEs over the past two days may cause
occasional storm periods.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jan to 08 Jan
| Class M | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jan 088 Predicted 06 Jan-08 Jan 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 05 Jan 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan 016/023 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan 020/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan 015/020-015/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan to 08 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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