Viewing archive of Thursday, 6 January 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jan 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 006 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Region 715 (N04W46)
is now a small simple beta spot group and is the only sunspot group
on the visible disk. A new active region is rotating onto the
visible disk near S08. No significant activity was noted.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed remains elevated;
however, IMF Bz was sustained northward for most of the period. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high
again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. Weak transient
flow from CME activity on 04 and 05 January may create occasional
active periods on 07 and 08 January. Predominantly quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on 09 January.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jan to 09 Jan
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jan 083 Predicted 07 Jan-09 Jan 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 06 Jan 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan 011/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan 015/015-015/020-008/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan to 09 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 15% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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