Viewing archive of Friday, 7 January 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jan 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 007 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 715 (N06w59) has decayed to a small single polarity sunspot. New Region 718 (S09E78) was numbered today and was responsible for occasional B-class flares. Another active region is rotating into view near S12.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Isolated C-class activity is possible from active regions near the southeast limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. Transient flow, likely the CME activity from 04 and 05 January, impacted the geomagnetic field first at around 07/0900Z. The existing elevated solar wind speed increased from 500 km/s to just over 600 km/s. The major storming followed a period of sustained southward Bz to near -10 nT between 07/1300 - 1500Z. A second disturbance passed the ACE spacecraft at 07/2010Z. Only a weak enhancement was observed on the plasma measurements; however, the IMF Bz turned sharply southward to near -15 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again this period. The energetic electrons, which have been sustained at high levels since 03 January, dropped below the high threshold at approximately 07/1900Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to major storm levels. Transient flow from the CME activity on 04 and 05 January will continue the current disturbance through 08 January. Periods of minor to major storming are expected on the 8th. Quiet to active levels are expected on 09 January, before gradually returning to predominantly quiet conditions on 10 January.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Jan to 10 Jan
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Jan 084
  Predicted   08 Jan-10 Jan  085/090/090
  90 Day Mean        07 Jan 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Jan  018/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan  025/040-012/020-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan to 10 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%15%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%30%20%
Minor storm30%15%10%
Major-severe storm20%05%01%

All times in UTC

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