Viewing archive of Tuesday, 1 February 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Feb 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 032 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. The two sunspot regions on the visible disk, Regions 727 (S09W68) and 729 (S08E06), were quiet and stable. A 9 degree filament erupted from near S15W16 at 01/0800Z, but there was no apparent CME on LASCO imagery. An impressive backside full halo CME was observed on LASCO imagery at 01/1106Z. The likely source of this eruption was old Region 720 (N13, L=178), which is due to return to the visible disk on 05 February. A Type II radio sweep (660 km/s) and a 245 MHz burst of 9800 sfu were observed at 01/1032Z, and were likely associated with this backside CME.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low. The activity level is expected to increase after 05 February when old Region 720 returns to the visible disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed remains elevated, but gradually declined from near 620 km/s to 530 km/s to end the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Feb to 04 Feb
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Feb 084
  Predicted   02 Feb-04 Feb  085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        01 Feb 102
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan  015/019
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Feb  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb  012/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb to 04 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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