Viewing archive of Sunday, 9 January 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jan 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 009 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. Region 719 (S09E65) produced an M2.4 at 0854Z on 09 Jan which was accompanied by Type II radio emissions indicating a CME. Though it is reported as a small region, it continues to produce several plage fluctuations and point brightenings. Flare potential for this region remains fair. Region 718 (S06E54) continues to shrink, loosing another sunspot over yesterday with no other significant activity noted.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. There does, however exist the slight chance that Region 719 will produce an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The solar wind transient activity of the previous few days has subsided, with solar wind speeds returning to a nominal 450 km/s. The geomagnetic field did incur a 12 nT sudden impulse on 09 Jan at 1042Z, but it was of insufficient strength and duration to cause a storm-level response.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels from 10 through 12 Jan. There is a possibility for an isolated period of active or minor storming levels on 12 Jan due to the grazing impact of a coronal hole induced high speed solar wind stream. The CME activity generated by the M-class activity of 09 Jan is strongly directed away from Earth, and is unlikely to generate elevated activity levels.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jan to 12 Jan
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Jan 088
  Predicted   10 Jan-12 Jan  090/085/090
  90 Day Mean        09 Jan 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan  020/030
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Jan  005/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan  005/008-005/008-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan to 12 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

All times in UTC

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