Viewing archive of Saturday, 5 February 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Feb 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 036 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels today. Multiple
C-class flares occurred from a source on the east limb near N14, the
largest was a C7 x-ray event that occurred at 04/2357Z. This is
likely the return of old Region 720 (N13, L=178). LASCO imagery
depicts two distinct CME eruptions from the solar east limb which do
not appear to be Earth directed. No new regions were numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels throughout the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the first day (6
Feb). Predominantly active conditions with periods of minor
storming are possible on 7-8 February due to a recurrent high speed
coronal hole stream.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Feb to 08 Feb
| Class M | 40% | 45% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Feb 095 Predicted 06 Feb-08 Feb 105/115/125 90 Day Mean 05 Feb 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Feb 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb 008/010-015/025-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb to 08 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 45% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 15% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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