Viewing archive of Sunday, 6 February 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Feb 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 037 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity remained at low levels today. Region 732 (N09E70, believed to be old Region 720) was numbered today and was the source for the largest flare of the period, a C1 x-ray flare that occurred at 06/0939Z. Analysis of the magnetic field structure indicates a fair amount of complexity over a large are of plage while the sunspot area coverage is currently meager. New Region 731 (S02E27) was also numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Region 732 could continue the production of C-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The active conditions occurred between 06/0600 and 0900Z due to the associated solar sector boundary crossing that was seen at the ACE spacecraft at approximately 06/0500Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels with a chance for isolated minor storming for 7 February due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Predominantly unsettled conditions are expected on 7-8 February as the coronal hole wanes.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Feb to 09 Feb
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Feb 097
  Predicted   07 Feb-09 Feb  095/100/100
  90 Day Mean        06 Feb 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb  001/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Feb  005/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb  015/020-012/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb to 09 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%20%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%25%20%
Minor storm20%10%05%
Major-severe storm10%01%01%

All times in UTC

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