Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Tuesday, 25 January 2005

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jan 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 025 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 727 (S09E25) underwent decay today and appears to be a simple beta magnetic spot complex. With the exception of a few low level B-class flares the solar disk and limb were fairly quiescent today. Region 728 (S14E66) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. An isolated C-class flare is possible from Region 727.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels today. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active periods may be observed in the nighttime sectors at the higher latitudes throughout the reporting period.

III. Event Probabilities 26 Jan to 28 Jan

Class M	05%	05%	05%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       25 Jan 094
  Predicted   26 Jan-28 Jan  095/095/100
  90 Day Mean        25 Jan 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan  005/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Jan  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan  005/012-006/012-008/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan to 28 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	15%	15%	20%
Minor storm	05%	05%	05%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	25%	25%	30%
Minor storm	05%	05%	10%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	05%

All times in UTC

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The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (501.3 km/sec.)
The density of the solar wind is moderate (28.54 p/cm³)

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (11.63nT), the direction is North (4.97nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-84nT)

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