Viewing archive of Wednesday, 26 January 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jan 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 026 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 727 (S09E11) underwent a slight decay in sunspot area today. No new regions were numbered this period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. There is a chance of isolated active conditions at high latitudes on 27 and 28 January. Minor to major storming is possible on 29 January due to the onset of a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jan to 29 Jan
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Jan 089
  Predicted   27 Jan-29 Jan  090/095/095
  90 Day Mean        26 Jan 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan  002/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Jan  002/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan  004/010-006/015-018/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan to 29 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%40%
Minor storm05%05%25%
Major-severe storm01%01%15%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%30%30%
Minor storm05%15%40%
Major-severe storm01%05%20%

All times in UTC

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