Viewing archive of Wednesday, 26 January 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jan 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 026 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 727
(S09E11) underwent a slight decay in sunspot area today. No new
regions were numbered this period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. There is a chance of
isolated active conditions at high latitudes on 27 and 28 January.
Minor to major storming is possible on 29 January due to the onset
of a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jan to 29 Jan
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jan 089 Predicted 27 Jan-29 Jan 090/095/095 90 Day Mean 26 Jan 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan 004/010-006/015-018/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan to 29 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 40% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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