Viewing archive of Wednesday, 9 February 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Feb 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 040 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 732 (N14E28) produced a
C1.2 flare at 08/2144Z. New Region 734 (S04E71) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with an isolated minor
storm period between O600Z and 0900Z. This elevated activity was
due to persistence of a coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind
speed at ACE fluctuated around 700 to 750 km/s throughout the
period. Bz was oscillating between +/- 5 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to active levels with a slight chance
for isolated minor storm periods.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Feb 109 Predicted 10 Feb-12 Feb 115/115/115 90 Day Mean 09 Feb 099
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb 027/034 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb 016/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb 010/015-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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