Viewing archive of Thursday, 17 February 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Feb 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 048 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
Solar activity was low. Region 734 (S05W34) produced a
C4.9 flare at 2338UTC with an associated halo CME traveling at a
velocity of approximately 900 km/s. Region 735 (S07W06) is the
largest group on the disk but was stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M class flare from Region 735.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for 18 February due to a coronal
hole. Activity should remain at unsettled to active levels for 19
February due to possible effects from today's CME. Conditions
should decrease to unsettled on 20 February.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Feb to 20 Feb
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Feb 111 Predicted 18 Feb-20 Feb 105/100/100 90 Day Mean 17 Feb 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb 008/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb 005/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb 015/020-015/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb to 20 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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