Viewing archive of Wednesday, 2 March 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Mar 02 2320 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 061 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity continues at very low levels. Newly
numbered Region 740(S07W24) emerged today and quickly developed into
a CSO Beta spot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled, becoming quiet late in
the UTC day. A high speed coronal hole stream remains geoeffective.
Solar wind speed ranged from 600 - 700 km/s; however, a downward
trend was observed through the day. The IMF Bz varied between +/- 4
nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels. Quiet levels are
expected on 04 and 05 March as the high speed solar wind stream
rotates out of a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Mar to 05 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Mar 075 Predicted 03 Mar-05 Mar 075/080/080 90 Day Mean 02 Mar 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar 010/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Mar 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar 008/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar to 05 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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