Viewing archive of Wednesday, 13 April 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Apr 13 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
Solar activity was very low. All of the regions on the
disk were stable and quiet, and the GOES x-ray flux remained below B
level for the entire interval. New Region 753 (N12W06) emerged as
a small, C-type sunspot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly active with a few minor storm
periods. The enhanced activity is being driven by a high speed
stream from a favorably positioned coronal hole. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux attained high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours (14 April).
The currently enhanced activity level is expected to diminish around
midday on the 14th as the high speed stream moves out of
geoeffective position. Mostly unsettled levels should predominate on
15 April, and quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for 16
April.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Apr to 16 Apr
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Apr 084 Predicted 14 Apr-16 Apr 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 13 Apr 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Apr 023/030 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Apr 020/027 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr 015/020-010/015-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr to 16 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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