Viewing archive of Friday, 15 April 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Apr 15 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
Solar activity was at very low levels. All of the
regions on the disk were quiescent over the period. The GOES x-ray
flux at geosynchronous orbit remained below the B-level for the
entire interval. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly at quiet to unsettled levels.
A brief active period occurred in the middle and high latitudes
between 15/0300 and 0600Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Apr to 18 Apr
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Apr 085 Predicted 16 Apr-18 Apr 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 15 Apr 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr 014/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Apr 008/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr 005/008-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr to 18 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 02% | 02% | 02% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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