Viewing archive of Sunday, 17 April 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Apr 17 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 107 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Apr 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Newly numbered Region 755
(S11E76) generated three C-class events on 17 Apr, two near 1300Z
and one at 2054Z. All other regions remain steady.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 755 has the continued potential to produce C-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. There's a chance for
isolated periods of active levels as a high-speed stream from a
small, but well defined coronal hole rotates into potentially
geoeffective range from 19 - 20 Apr.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Apr to 20 Apr
| Class M | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Apr 084 Predicted 18 Apr-20 Apr 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 17 Apr 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Apr 004/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Apr 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Apr-20 Apr 005/008-010/012-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Apr to 20 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 02% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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