Viewing archive of Monday, 18 April 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Apr 18 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 108 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Apr 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 755 (S11E67) produced a C4.6 flare at 17/2107 UTC. An associated CME was first observed on LASCO C2 imagery at 17/2126 UTC off the east limb. The CME is not expected to be geoeffective. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period at mid latitudes. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with possible isolated active conditions due to the effects of a coronal hole high speed stream moving into geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Apr to 21 Apr
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Apr 081
  Predicted   19 Apr-21 Apr  080/080/080
  90 Day Mean        18 Apr 092
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Apr  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Apr  005/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Apr-21 Apr  010/012-008/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Apr to 21 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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