Viewing archive of Monday, 21 March 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Mar 21 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 080 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Mar 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels today. Newly numbered Region 745 (N12E54) produced the only C-class flare recorded this period, a C2 event that occurred at 20/1547 UTC. This active region currently appears to be a simply structured magnetic BXO beta group. Region 743 (S08W84) appears to be in decay as the spot cluster begins to exit the solar west limb. Region 744 (S12W13) underwent growth in the sunspot area and appeared fairly quiescent throughout the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. A weak coronal hole high speed stream appears to have passed the ACE spacecraft at approximately 21/0800 UTC with maximum solar wind speeds reaching 650 km/s at approximately 20/0900 UTC. Following two hours of a sustained southward Bz, a brief geoeffective period of active conditions occurred between 20/1200 and 1500 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. A solar sector boundary crossing is expected to produce isolated active conditions on 22 March. Isolated active conditions should persist through 23 and 24 March due to a coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Mar to 24 Mar
Class M10%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Mar 090
  Predicted   22 Mar-24 Mar  085/080/080
  90 Day Mean        21 Mar 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Mar  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Mar  006/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar  006/012-008/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Mar to 24 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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