Viewing archive of Sunday, 20 March 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Mar 20 2200 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 079 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels today. Old
Region 742 (S06 L=160) which rotated off the west solar limb 19
March produced the largest flare of the period, a C4 x-ray event
that occurred at 20/0159 UTC. Region 743 (S08W70) produced multiple
B and C-class flares during the period. The largest was a C2 x-ray
event that occurred at 20/1152 UTC. There was some decay in spot
area today and the beta-gamma magnetic structure weakened but
remains intact. Region 744 (S12E01) is a rapidly forming DSO beta
group and was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated
active periods may be possible at higher latitudes on 22 and 23
March, due to a potentially geoeffective coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Mar to 23 Mar
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Mar 089 Predicted 21 Mar-23 Mar 085/080/080 90 Day Mean 20 Mar 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar 009/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Mar 004/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar 004/008-004/012-006/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar to 23 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 02% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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