Viewing archive of Friday, 24 June 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jun 24 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jun 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. Flare activity was limited to minor B-class x-ray events seen on the solar west limb near S19. The source region for this activity is believed to be from old Region 779 (S19 L=332). Region 780 (S08W30) underwent continued decay and the region has become a simple BXO beta group. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. The storm conditions are due to a recurrent coronal hole. The associated solar wind speeds have been elevated to near 500 km/sec throughout most of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels. There may be a slight chance of isolated minor storming conditions though 25 June due to the geoeffective coronal hole. Unsettled levels with isolated active conditions are expected on 26 June as the coronal hole wanes. Quiet to unsettled levels should return by 27 June.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jun to 27 Jun
Class M01%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Jun 077
  Predicted   25 Jun-27 Jun  080/080/080
  90 Day Mean        24 Jun 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jun  030/048
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Jun  015/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun  015/020-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jun to 27 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%20%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%35%25%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

All times in UTC

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