Viewing archive of Sunday, 24 July 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jul 24 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. Region 791 (N13E36) remains the only numbered spot group on the solar disk. This region has shown a slight growth in area and maintains a simple beta magnetic configuration. Several CME's were observed by LASCO imagery over the past 24 hours. Analysis show these were backside events and not Earth directed. One appears to be a halo CME first observed by C2 imagery at 24/1354 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There is a chance for an isolated C-class flare from Region 791.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jul to 27 Jul
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Jul 080
  Predicted   25 Jul-27 Jul  085/085/090
  90 Day Mean        24 Jul 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jul  002/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Jul  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul  005/008-005/005-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jul to 27 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Tórshavn
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Kuopio, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Reykjavik
Kirkenes, Tromsø, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk, Vorkuta
Kiruna, Luleå, Sundsvall, Umeå
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-68nT)

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