Viewing archive of Saturday, 20 August 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Aug 20 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 232 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Aug 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Only small B-class flares
occurred. Region 798 (S11W33) remains the largest sunspot group on
the visible disk and has continued to grow in size and complexity.
Region 801 (N06E54) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Most activity is expected in Region 798.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Aug to 23 Aug
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Aug 098 Predicted 21 Aug-23 Aug 100/100/105 90 Day Mean 20 Aug 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Aug 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Aug 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Aug-23 Aug 005/005-005/005-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Aug to 23 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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