Viewing archive of Monday, 1 August 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Aug 01 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 792 (N12E25) produced the largest flare during the period, a long duration M1/1f flare that occurred at 01/1351Z. This event generated an associated Tenflare (290 sfu), a Type IV radio sweep, and a CME that may have a weak geoeffective component. Region 792 underwent a decrease in sunspot number however, sunspot area has remained the same. This region continues to exhibit beta-gamma-delta magnetic features. Region 794 (S11E60) produced the second largest flare during the period, a C5 x-ray event that occurred at 01/1221Z. This region has shown growth in sunspot area over the interval. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 792 is capable of producing M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The elevated activity may be attributed to a weak transient that was observed at the ACE spacecraft at approximately 01/0500Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 27/2300Z ended at 01/1040Z, a maximum of 41 pfu occurred at 29/1715Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active conditions are possible on 04 August due to a glancing blow from the CME that was associated with the M1/1f flare that occurred today.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Aug to 04 Aug
Class M70%70%70%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Aug 111
  Predicted   02 Aug-04 Aug  110/105/105
  90 Day Mean        01 Aug 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul  010/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Aug  015/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug  012/015-005/005-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug to 04 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%15%30%
Minor storm10%05%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%20%35%
Minor storm15%05%15%
Major-severe storm05%01%05%

All times in UTC

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