Viewing archive of Monday, 19 September 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Sep 19 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 808 (S11W78) continued its rapid decay phase. Just a few C-class flares occurred, the largest a C3 at 0350 UTC. One new region, Region 811 (S10E00) emerged on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The energetic electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was very high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to mildly active.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Sep to 22 Sep
Class M20%10%10%
Class X10%05%05%
Proton10%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Sep 091
  Predicted   20 Sep-22 Sep  085/085/080
  90 Day Mean        19 Sep 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep  008/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Sep  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep  010/020-010/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep to 22 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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