Viewing archive of Tuesday, 27 September 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Sep 27 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Sep 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for an isolated C-flare from Region 810
(N08W62).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. An active period, observed
between 0300 and 0600 UTC, was due to a prolonged interval of
southward Bz.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with minor storm periods possible
on 28 and 29 September, as a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream moves into geoeffective position. Conditions should decrease
to mostly unsettled by 30 September.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Sep to 30 Sep
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Sep 077 Predicted 28 Sep-30 Sep 080/080/075 90 Day Mean 27 Sep 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Sep 009/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Sep 008/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep 010/020-010/020-008/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep to 30 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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