Viewing archive of Monday, 26 September 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Sep 26 2226 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for an isolated C-flare from Region 810 (N08W49).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Active periods were due to
intervals of southward Bz.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled to active with isolated minor storm
periods possible due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream
moving into geoeffective position on 27 September.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Sep to 29 Sep
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Sep 081 Predicted 27 Sep-29 Sep 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 26 Sep 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Sep 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Sep 008/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep 012/015-012/020-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep to 29 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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