Viewing archive of Sunday, 25 September 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Sep 25 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
Solar activity has been very low. Regions 810 (N08W35)
and 812 (S02E45) produced no flares, and exhibited no significant
development. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. Slight chance of C-class flares possible from Region 810.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet all three days, with a moderate chance of
unsettled to active conditions on 27-28 September.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Sep to 28 Sep
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Sep 081 Predicted 26 Sep-28 Sep 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 25 Sep 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Sep 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep 005/008-010/015-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep to 28 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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