Viewing archive of Thursday, 6 October 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Oct 06 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 813
(S08E05) showed a slight decay in the trailing portion of the
sunspot group. The magnetic gamma structure in Region 813 has
weakened during the period but remains intact. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Region 813 is capable of producing isolated
C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. The onset of a
recurrent high speed coronal hole stream may result in active
conditions on 09 October.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Oct to 09 Oct
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Oct 080 Predicted 07 Oct-09 Oct 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 06 Oct 089
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct 005/005-005/010-010/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct to 09 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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