Viewing archive of Sunday, 9 October 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Oct 09 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 813
(S08W35) continues to show steady decay in sunspot area. Region 813
remains a magnetic beta spot group. No new regions were numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. The coronal hole high
speed stream has begun to wane but may yet produce further periods
of active conditions through 10 October.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Oct 079 Predicted 10 Oct-12 Oct 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 09 Oct 088
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct 016/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct 010/010-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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