Viewing archive of Monday, 31 October 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Oct 31 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity continued at very low levels. A B8 flare was observed at 31/1643Z from near S03 on the east limb. This area of bright emission on the southeast limb is likely the return of old Region 814 (S08, L=228). A new bipolar sunspot group was numbered today as Region 819 (S09E26). This spot group emerged in close proximity to Region 818 (S08E32), which is also a small beta group in a slow growth phase.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Isolated C-class flares are possible from the tightly grouped Regions 818 and 819. A C-class flare is also possible from old active Region 814, which is rotating into view on the southeast limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The most disturbed conditions were associated with a period of sustained southward IMF Bz that began at around 31/0900Z and persisted through the remainder of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position on 03 November.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Nov to 03 Nov
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 Oct 078
  Predicted   01 Nov-03 Nov  080/080/080
  90 Day Mean        31 Oct 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct  003/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 Oct  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov  008/010-005/005-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov to 03 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%20%
Minor storm05%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%25%
Minor storm10%05%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%05%

All times in UTC

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