Viewing archive of Friday, 4 November 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Nov 04 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. No flares were
recorded during the period. Regions 818 (S08W21) and 819 (S07W28)
continue to decay with one sunspot visible in each region. No new
regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm
conditions. A coronal hole high speed stream continues to be
responsible for the elevated conditions. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels.
Isolated periods of minor storm conditions are possible on 05
November, due to the coronal hole. Quiet to unsettled levels are
expected to return on 06 November.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Nov to 07 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Nov 077 Predicted 05 Nov-07 Nov 075/080/080 90 Day Mean 04 Nov 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov 019/024 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Nov 020/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov 015/020-010/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov to 07 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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