Viewing archive of Saturday, 26 November 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Nov 26 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 330 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Nov 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity was low. A C1.0 flare occurred from Region 822 at 26/0409 UTC on the west limb at approximately S09.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. On 28 and 29 November, isolated active periods are possible.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Nov to 29 Nov
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Nov 081
  Predicted   27 Nov-29 Nov  080/080/080
  90 Day Mean        26 Nov 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Nov  008/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Nov  005/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov  005/008-008/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Nov to 29 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%25%25%
Minor storm10%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NT
Fairbanks, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Edmonton, AB, Saskatoon, SK
Anchorage, AK, Juneau, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Calgary, AB
The direction of the interplanetary magnetic field is slightly South (-5.57nT).

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